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Expert Week 10 NFL Picks: Tips, Advice for Pick 'em pools

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The experts from TeamRankings are back with six Week 10 NFL picks that could give you a big edge in pick 'em pools. For more advice and a quick primer on our proven, data-driven, value-based approach to dominating football pools, see our article on NFL pick ’em pool strategy.

TeamRankings.com is the only site that customizes pick recommendations to give you the best chance to win your NFL pools. Last season, 81 percent of TeamRankings subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick ’em contest, and so far this year, their subscribers have already won over 1,000 weekly pool prizes.

To get recommended picks for your pools, check out their NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks. TeamRankings also offers data-driven NFL survivor pool picks and NFL betting picks.

Week 10 Fantasy Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker

Expert Week 10 NFL Picks Advice: Pick 'em pools

This week, we're highlighting six picks that stand out based on win odds and pick popularity. Deciding which way you want to go on these games is key when making your NFL Week 10 pick decisions.

Please remember that we are not saying you should make all of these picks. The best picks for your specific pool depend on multiple strategy factors, such as the total number of entries; whether it uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product figures out the best pick strategy for you.

Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data quoted below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

Favorites at a Reasonable Price

New England Patriots (at Tennessee)

The Patriots are 6.5-point favorites at Tennessee. With the Patriots’ win odds around 72 percent, the public (currently at 73 percent on New England) isn't wildly overrating the Patriots like it often does. Usually a team that is favored by this much is more popular nationwide, but people may be worried about the injury status of tight end Rob Gronkowski and running back Sony Michel, both listed as questionable. Looking at this from the another direction, the Titans are not an ideal upset pick this week. Vegas has them at 29-percent win odds, but with 27-percent public pick popularity, there’s only a two-percent differential between win odds and nationwide popularity. Underdogs such as the Panthers or Giants have a better risk/reward profile.

Atlanta Falcons (at Cleveland)

The Falcons are four-point favorites at Cleveland. With Cleveland already managing two wins and a tie so far this season, the public may be a little more hesitant than they were last year in finding excuses to bet against them in pick ’em or survivor pools. While our models have the Falcons’ win odds at just under 59 percent, Vegas is more optimistic about their chances, with Atlanta's odds translating to about a 62-percent chance to win. In our view, Atlanta is already a favorite at a reasonable price, but if you side with Vegas’s more optimistic view, the Falcons become an even more favorable value favorite with a 3.4-percent differential between win odds and pick popularity.

MORE TEAMRANKINGS:  Intro to data-driven NFL picks

Value Favorites

Los Angeles Chargers (at Oakland)

The Chargers are 10-point favorites at Oakland in Week 10. Based on the data we’ve seen, the popularity of the Raiders may vary quite a bit from pool to pool this week. A Raiders pick popularity of 28 percent (and 72 percent for the Chargers) may be a good baseline number to use if you don’t have good reason to suspect substantially different numbers from your competitors. Using these numbers, the Chargers (with 80-percent win odds according to Vegas) would be a solid value favorite with their win odds exceeding their nationwide pick popularity. Our models are slightly less optimistic on the Chargers, giving them 77-percent win odds, but that is still more than enough to be able to get bonus value if you pick likely winner Los Angeles.

New Orleans Saints (at Cincinnati)

The Saints, favored by 5.5 points on the road, are relatively unpopular with the public (60-percent pick popularity) given that Vegas has them at 69-percent win odds. The Bengals are coming off a bye week in Week 9 while the Saints had to play against a tough and previously undefeated Rams team last Sunday, which could partially explain why the Saints aren’t more popular. Our models are slightly more optimistic about the Saints’ chances here than Vegas, giving them win odds over 10-percent higher than their pick popularity. In almost any pick 'em pool format, New Orleans is worth very strong consideration, as it’s rare for there to be this much additional value for the favorite.

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Jacksonville)

The Colts, three-point favorites at home over the Jaguars, have 58-percent win odds according to Vegas. While we have the Colts’ chances a shade lower, our model still has their winning chances above the 56-percent pick popularity that they have right now. The Colts’ last two wins have come against the Raiders and Bills, arguably the two worst teams in the NFL, and the public may not want to give them much credit for those victories. On the other hand, even though Jacksonville has the same 3-5 record as Indianapolis, perhaps your pool opponents feel that the Jags still have a chance to return to their superior form from last year. Whatever the reason, although the amount of value for the favorite in this game is less than in the Saints-Bengals game, even a small positive differential is a rare find. The Colts look like the better play in most pool formats.

Value Gamble

Carolina Panthers (at Pittsburgh)

In Week 10, all of the games have a point spread of at least three points, so going with even the smallest underdogs this week will involve more risk than in other weeks where you could pick a toss up or smaller underdog. For weekly pools that reward more risk-taking, one of the better candidates for a value gamble this week is Carolina, a four-point underdog at Pittsburgh. Only 14 percent of the public has picked the Panthers, so you will have the opportunity to gain ground on many of your competitors if Carolina pulls off the upset. While there are a few less risky underdogs, such as Jacksonville and Washington, those teams have a smaller differential between win odds and public popularity. Jacksonville's risk/reward profile as an upset pick looks especially poor.

Which Of These Six Picks Should You Make?

Maybe all, maybe only one or two. We're not dodging the question -- the truth is that it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer.

We built our Football Pool Picks to do all the number crunching for you and figure out when it makes the most sense for you to go with the favorite vs. the underdog. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it customizes Week 10 pick recommendations to give you the biggest edge.

If you're in an NFL survivor pool or planning on betting NFL Week 10, check out our NFL survivor pool picks and NFL betting picks.

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